China’s Vanishing Data Raises Concerns

For years, researchers, economists, and investors relied on a broad array of Chinese economic data to gauge the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Today, much of that information is no longer available.

  • In recent years, China has systematically curtailed the publication of key economic indicators. Metrics once routinely published—such as land sales volumes, foreign direct investment, urban unemployment figures, and even cremation statistics—have either been quietly removed or abruptly discontinued.
  • The changes represent a significant retreat from transparency at a time of growing uncertainty over China’s economic trajectory.
  • Among the missing data are measures once used as proxies for activity in the property market and labor force. The National Bureau of Statistics, for instance, has ceased publishing the number of urban residents receiving unemployment insurance, without explanation.

In at least one case, the bureau responded to a public inquiry by stating only that the relevant ministry had stopped providing the information.

A Shift Amid Structural Economic Challenges

The withdrawal of data coincides with a period of increasing economic strain. China is contending with a property market in deep contraction, rising local government debt, demographic pressures, and the lingering effects of years of strict COVID-related restrictions. Trade tensions with the United States have further complicated the outlook, with declining exports and weakened investor sentiment weighing on growth.

  • Despite these headwinds, official GDP growth figures have remained largely stable, with Beijing reporting growth of 5.2% in 2023 and 5% in 2024—exactly in line with the government’s own targets.
  • However, independent economists and private sector analysts have expressed skepticism, suggesting the true pace of growth may be considerably lower.

Several estimates from research firms indicate that China may be overstating its GDP by 2 to 3 percentage points, raising fresh doubts about the reliability of headline numbers.

Alternative Indicators Gain Prominence

With traditional indicators increasingly unavailable, analysts have turned to unconventional sources to track the economy. These include satellite imagery of nighttime light intensity, movie box office revenue, cement production, and electricity consumption. Some also parse location data from Chinese tech firms, such as Baidu, to approximate levels of business activity in urban centers.

  • Others have employed more anecdotal methods. One economist cited tracking reports of gym and beauty salon closures—often accompanied by owners absconding with pre-paid membership fees—as a proxy for distress in the services sector.
  • Skepticism about the reliability of Chinese economic statistics is not new. In a diplomatic cable leak, former premier Li Keqiang was quoted telling the U.S. ambassador in 2007 that he regarded official GDP figures as "for reference only," preferring to monitor electricity use, rail freight volumes, and bank lending to assess real economic activity.

Li's remarks, often referred to as the "Li Keqiang Index," have been widely cited by economists wary of politically calibrated statistics. The enduring relevance of that index underscores how alternative measures of economic performance remain central to China analysis—particularly as official transparency continues to erode.

Cracks in the Facade

The pullback on economic data disclosure has mirrored the broader decline in China’s property sector. After Beijing began tightening credit to real-estate developers in 2021, the housing market faltered. Developers defaulted, sales stalled, and confidence eroded. That same year, Beike Research Institute, a Chinese think tank, released a report estimating that housing vacancy rates in 28 Chinese cities exceeded levels typical in the U.S. and other developed countries—a stark indicator of oversupply.

  • The report was swiftly withdrawn, with Beike citing “errors in the data.” Analysts believe the retraction was not voluntary but came in response to government pressure.
  • The report’s disappearance highlighted a deeper problem: the absence of reliable official figures. China does not publish a nationwide vacancy rate, leaving the market reliant on fragmented and unofficial estimates.

Official statistics have gone dark elsewhere, too. Land sales—a critical revenue stream for local governments—fell sharply, with the total value plunging 48% in 2022. As municipal budgets came under pressure, reports surfaced of delayed salaries and stalled infrastructure projects. In early 2023, that dataset was removed from public release.

A Case Study in Statistical Revision

One of the most high-profile data suspensions came in August 2023, when Chinese authorities halted publication of the youth unemployment rate. The move came after months of growing public concern over job prospects for young people, many of whom graduated into an economy offering few opportunities. Social media posts, showing students in graduation gowns lying prone on the ground, went viral—interpreted as symbolic protests against their bleak employment outlook.

  • At the time, the official youth jobless rate had reached 21.3%, a record high. A separate estimate from economist Zhang Dandan of Peking University suggested the real figure could be closer to 46.5%.
  • Five months later, authorities unveiled a revised methodology and a new, significantly lower number: 14.9%. Officials claimed the updated figure excluded over 60 million full-time students, arguing they should not be counted as unemployed.

Economists disagreed, noting that international standards include job-seeking students in unemployment calculations. The change deepened concerns that statistical revisionism was supplanting economic transparency.

Restricted Access and Workarounds

Some datasets remain technically available—but increasingly difficult to access. A 2021 data security law prompted platforms to limit access to previously open information such as satellite imagery, company registries, and land transaction records. By early 2023, Wind Information, a leading Chinese data provider, began restricting access to certain datasets—such as e-commerce sales and land auctions—for non-mainland users.

  • One economist at a global bank based in Hong Kong told the Journal that they now make regular weekend trips to Shenzhen to download data directly—an effort to stay ahead of mounting access restrictions.
  • The youth employment numbers weren’t the only casualty. Data on toll road operators’ debt levels, the number of new retail investors, and national cremation figures have also been scrubbed.

The cremation data disappeared in late 2022, just as the government abandoned its strict zero-COVID policy—a move that, according to some estimates, may have contributed to 1.3 to 2.1 million excess deaths. Authorities simultaneously escalated online censorship around COVID-related discussions.

When Numbers Vanish Without Explanation

A more consequential gap lies in data connected to China’s shrinking population. In the 2000s, demographic researcher Yi Fuxian suggested that the number of tuberculosis vaccinations—administered to nearly all newborns—was a more accurate gauge of births than official tallies. In 2020, vaccine data indicated only 5.4 million newborns, far below the government’s claimed 12.1 million births. The following year, the National Institutes for Food and Drug Control ceased publishing the TB vaccination numbers.

The disappearance of data—whether due to suppression, revision, or access restrictions—has implications. At stake is not merely a loss of transparency, but a deterioration of investor confidence, policy effectiveness, and international credibility.

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Photo by Alejandro Luengo / Unsplash.